BREAKING: Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation

BREAKING: Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation found no evidence of collusion with Russia, according to U.S. Attorney General William Barr. The question of obstruction of justice by Trump was deemed inconclusive. Barr released a summary of Mueller’s report to Congress. Mueller turned in his final report on Friday. “The report found evidence on both sides […]

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Theresa May’s Second Big Loss

After PM Theresa May’s defeat yesterday on the new Brexit deal, the House of Commons is voting tonight on whether it can support leaving the EU without a deal. We maintain our view that the House of Commons will vote to reject a no deal Brexit and instead tomorrow vote in favour of an extension. […]

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Weekly Fundamental Prep KW11-2019

Next week the US will be publishing inflation rate, the preliminary reading of Michigan consumer sentiment, retail sales, industrial production, durable goods orders, new home sales, producer prices, and NY Empire State Manufacturing Index. Elsewhere, important releases include: UK monthly GDP, industrial output and foreign trade; Eurozone industrial activity and final inflation rate; Germany trade […]

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Lyft IPO A Prospectus Review

We can tell you that no other corporate document takes as much time and effort as an S-1. Everyone from founders, lead investors, management, bankers and (of course) lawyers want a say. They all know that you never have a second chance at a first impression. An S-1 is their best stab at creating the […]

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Farewell Speech #Abschiedsrede Hans-Georg Maaßen

Here the first public version of his farewell speech in German, analysis follows soon. “Liebe Kolleginnen und Kollegen, Ich möchte mich heute aus diesem Kreis nach über sechsjähriger Zugehörigkeit von Ihnen verabschieden. Manche Abschiede sind geplant, z.B. wenn der Arbeitsvertrag befristet oder wenn eine bestimmte Altersgrenze erreicht ist, wie bei unserem Freund Rob, andere Abschiede sind […]

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US Nonfarm Payrolls Preparation For August 2018

US Nonfarm Payrolls Preparation for August 2018   The Employment Situation for August 2018 is scheduled to be released on September 7, 2018, at 8:30 A.M. Eastern Time. Jobless claims remained near a 50-year low in the month, pointing to a very low rate of layoffs. Still, hiring may have been limited by the shrinking […]

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Italy / diverging system

Simply put, the natural return-to-the-mean dynamic between Italy and Germany has ceased, causing their economic systems to diverge rather than converge. Hence, anyone buying Italian over German stocks is betting on a world first—that this system will self-correct despite a fixed exchange rate joining economies with quite different productivity levels. In fact, this has only […]

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Will Powell raise or not

Here are the market-based measurements we watch most closely on these two issues: 1) Fed Funds Futures past December 2018 Current futures market pricing assumes the Fed will end this year with rates at 2.2%, which in practical terms means the aforementioned 3 rate bumps over the balance of 2018. Going out past 2019, the […]

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The yield curve

The yield curve is a decent proxy for the relative future return of long-duration and short-duration bonds. When the yield curve is steep, it makes sense to take the higher volatility-risk of long-duration bonds, as investors are compensated by higher returns. However, when the yield curve is flat investors are better off holding short-duration bonds […]

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