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Weekly Prep for Week 45 Nov. 4th – 10th

Global overview

▪ Service sector PMI surveys updated for October to provide insight into global growth trends
▪ Bank of England MPC meeting
▪ Germany’s industrial production
▪ Indonesia and Philippines GDP

Next week important releases include the US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, trade deficit, Michigan’s consumer sentiment, and factory orders; UK Markit Services and Construction PMIs; Eurozone retail sales; Germany factory orders and trade balance; China foreign trade, consumer and producer prices; and Australia retail sales and trade balance. The BoE and RBA will decide on monetary policy, while the BoJ will publish meeting minutes.

In the US, the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to rebound from a three-year low, pointing to an acceleration in services activity during October; while the September’s trade deficit is seen narrowing from the previous month. The preliminary reading of Michigan’s consumer sentiment should point to an improvement in morale during November. Other notable publications are: factory orders; JOLTs Job Openings; IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism; third-quarter nonfarm productivity and labor costs; and the final readings of wholesale inventories and Markit Services PMI.

Elsewhere in America, important releases include: Canada employment figures, foreign trade, Ivey PMI; and Mexico and Brazil inflation rates.

In the UK, the Bank of England will meet to deliver its latest policy decision and to publish its Inflation Report with updated forecasts. The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee is expected to sit on its hands given the still-unclear Brexit process, stable inflation and volatile GDP developments, but the meeting will be closely watched for how the Bank sees the economy faring as Brexit uncertainty intensifies with an upcoming general election. We expect UK policymakers will leave rates on hold until the first half of 2021 although, based on survey data, current economic conditions are historically aligned with looser monetary policy. UK services PMI data will therefore be high on the agenda. A move deeper into negative territory could push the Bank of England closer to cutting rates.

Elsewhere in Europe, the Eurozone, Germany and France will publish final estimates of Markit PMIs while Spain and Italy will release flash readings. Other important releases include: Eurozone and Italy retail sales; Germany factory orders, industrial production, and trade balance; France industrial output and foreign trade; Switzerland consumer confidence and jobless rate; and Turkey inflation rate.

In the Asia-Pacific region, China‘s trade figures will be keenly watched, with markets expecting a 3.5 percent drop in exports and an 8.9 percent slump in imports amid ongoing trade tensions with the US. The country will also be publishing Caixin Services PMI and consumer and producer prices. Inflation will probably hit its highest level since February 2013, while producer prices should fall further into deflationary territory. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to hold interest rates at record lows while the Bank of Japan is set to release its monetary policy meeting minutes. Australia’s retail sales, trade balance and AIG Services Index will also be in the spotlight.

Other highlights include: New Zealand third-quarter unemployment; Indonesia and the Philippines Q3 GDP growth rates; and Malaysia and Thailand interest rate decisions.

Key events

Monday 4 November

Australia retail sales (Sep)
Malaysia trade (Sep)
UK construction PMI (Oct)
Singapore SIPMM manufacturing PMI (Oct)
US factory orders (Sep)

Tuesday 5 November

Worldwide release of IHS Markit services PMI (Oct)
Hong Kong and Singapore whole economy PMI (Oct)
2nd China International Import Expo (5-10 Nov)
Philippines inflation (Oct), industrial production (Sep)
Australia and Malaysia monetary policy decision
Indonesia GDP (Q3)
US trade, JOLTS job opening (Sep), ISM non-manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Wednesday 6 November

IHS Markit services PMI for Japan, Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Russia (Oct)
JPMorgan global composite PMI (Oct), Eurozone composite PMI (Final, Oct)
BOJ monetary policy meeting minutes (18-19 Sep)
Philippines trade (Sep)
Thailand monetary policy decision
Germany factory orders (Sep)
Taiwan inflation (Oct)
Euro area retail sales (Sep)
ECB non-monetary policy meeting

Thursday 7 November

Australia trade (Sep)
Philippines GDP (Q3)
Germany construction PMI (Oct), industrial output (Sep)
UK Halifax house price index (Oct)
BoE monetary policy meeting, inflation report
Brazil inflation (Oct)
Eurogroup meeting

Friday 8 November

Japan household spending, average earnings (Sep)
RBA statement on monetary policy (Nov); home loans (Sep)
China and Taiwan trade (Oct)
Germany trade (Sep)
France industrial output, trade balance (Sep)
US Michigan consumer surveys (Prelim, Nov), wholesale inventories (Sep)

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